Scott W. Ambler (Agile Modeling and Ambysoft) used Moore's technology adaption curve to describe agile development adaptation in Dr.Dobb's Journal article. According to Ambler we have already clearly crossed the chasm, the divider beyond which the spreading of a technology or methodology will really take off. He also reformats the agile cost of change curve and gives tips for us all who are on a crucade to promote agile methods in their own organization, or for consultants who do this in someone else's organization.
This phenomenon of agile development becoming mainstream can also be seen in forthcoming XP2006 in Oulu, Finland. Lots of presentations focus on issues around scaling the agile development.