It's going to be an interesting decade... (duh, again)

Yesterday a component distributor gave a summary presentation based on International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors.

"The ITRS identifies the technological challenges and needs facing the
semiconductor industry over the next 15 years

I also browsed through the actual paper, or only the Executive Summary (summary of 101 pgs). The key points that woke my interest:
  • a single pitch reduction cycle every year (of course a part will not go through all rounds)
  • 0.7 x price reduction for each pitch reduction cycle, resulting price half-time of two years

While these costs are only part of total microcontroller price (the paper forecasts very little reduction in packaging cost) we are living interesting times. The time will tell who are the winners in both the manufacturer and the new product development camps...

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